Economy Steams Ahead Despite SARS Says Economic Bulletin
By Azlan Othman

Bandar Seri Begawan - The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and security threat in the region notwithstanding, Brunei’s overall economic outlook for 2003 looks positive.

The Sultanate is projected to post a growth of 3 to 4 per cent. Brunei’s economy grew at an estimated 1.9 per cent in second quarter (Q2) of 2003 compared to the first quarter Q1). However, the economy grew at 8.3 per cent in Q2 compared to the same period last year.

The oil and gas sector contracted slightly by 1.0 per cent in Q2 2003 compared to Q1 2003. However, it grew by 14.5 per cent in Q2 2003 compared to Q2 2002.

The latest figures on second quarter are published in the economic review issued by the Brunei Economic Bulletin.

The performance of the oil and gas sector in the first half of 2003 grew by 7.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. The overall non-oil and gas sector grew by an estimated 5.2 per cent in Q2 2003 relative to Q1 2003. However, if compared to Q2 2002, it grew by 1.4 per cent.

The performance of individual activities under the non-oil and gas sector has shown mixed signals in Q2 2003 relative to Q2 2002 and Q1 2003. Due to SARS epidemic in the region, some sectors of the economy such as restaurants and hotels and transportation sectors registered negative growth.

Activities in the fishery sector registered a 13.5 per cent growth in Q2 2003 compared to Q1 2003. However, compared to Q2 2002 it contracted by 19.8 per cent. The slowdown of activities in Q2 2003 compared to Q2 2002 was mainly due to the drop in the production of capture industry. The production of capture industry dropped by 16.4 per cent from 5,076.8 metric tonnes in Q2 2002 to 4,242.8 mt in Q2 2003.

Activities in the agricultural sector are estimated to register a marginal contraction of 0.01 per cent in Q2 2003 compared to Q1 2003. However, compared to Q2 2002, it registered a 17.0 per cent growth.

Output of the crop industry such as fruit production, activities in the forestry sector, manufacturing and processing sector, production of sawn timber also recorded an increase in Q2 2003.

The overall performance of the transport and communications sector is estimated to contract by 4.8 per cent in Q2 2003 relative to Q1 2003. Compared to Q2 2002 it contracted by 11.8 per cent.

In the air transport sub sector, the total number of aircrafts movement declined by 14.0 per cent from 5.8 thousand movements in Q2 2002 to 5.0 thousand movement in Q2 2003.

Meanwhile, the total number of passenger movements declined by 58.3 per cent during the same period. Furthermore, the total number of freight movements declined by 16.8 per cent from 7.1 million kilogrammes to 5.8 million kg during the same period. On the other hand, the total number of mail movements increased by 22.5 per cent from 77.4 million kg to 94.8 million kg during the same period.

In the communications sector, the total number of direct exchange lines grew by 0.7 per cent from 81.67 thousand lines in Q2 2002 to 82.27 thousand lines on Q2 2003. Compared to Q1 2003, it grew by 0.9 per cent from 81.51 thousand lines.

However, the total number of BruNet subscribers decreased by 18.0 per cent from 36,293 subscribers in Q2 2002 to 29,749 subscribers in Q2 2003. Compared to Q1 2003, it contracted by 2.2 per cent from 30,419 subscribers. The total number of mail handled decreased by 11.2 per cent.

The banking and finance sector registered a contraction of 9.4 per cent in Q2 2003 compared to Q1 2003. However, compared to Q2 2002 it grew by 12.7 per cent. Total interest income from loan and advances stood at $115.0 million in Q2 2003 compared to $102.1 million and $126.9 million collected in Q2 2002 and Q1 2003. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

Brudirect.com News