It's A Warm Year, Say Weathermen
By Khairunnisa Ibrahim

Bandar Seri Begawan - Be prepared for a warm year, in fact the warmest year on record globally. That's what the British Meteorological Office has forecast for 2007, according to the Environment News Service website.

There is no major cause for concern, a representative from the Brunei Meteorological Service (BMS) said, but the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to herald warmerthan-average temperatures and lesser rainfall in the country.

There have been reports that El Nino warming patterns already established in the Pacific may lead to a record rise in temperature.

However, the Brunei weather station representative said that El Nino would not bring severe weather changes in the region as it is already at its peak, and the effects are expected to gradually decline.

This deduction is based on the statistical modelling of three established meteorological agencies - the National Centre for Environmental Prediction, World Meteorological Organisation and the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre.

"Therefore, if there are going to be any effects from the phenomenon, they are only expected to be slight," he said, pointing out that rainfall is expected to only be slightly lower than average.

Nevertheless, it is possible that unseen events may arise before the weather patterns return to normal by the end of the dry season, which lasts from March to May.

The forecaster added that the dry season may be associated with a recurrence of the haze, but he said that the possibilities of these are low and the effects may only be limited to local outbreaks of bush fires.

If large fires do break out in the southwestern part of Borneo - where annual land clearing activities make it a notorious source of the transboundary haze problem in the region - the smoke won't reach Brunei.

"Usually Brunei experiences haze during the Southwest Monsoon, between June and September," said the forecaster.

He added: "This is because the prevailing southwest winds transport the smoke particles to Brunei. But we are currently in the Northeast Monsoon, so if there are any burning in the neighbouring countries, the wind would transport the smoke away."

El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, with important consequences for weather around the globe. -- Courtesy of The Brunei Times

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