Iraqi talks head for deadlock

Baghdad - Iraq's leaders conceded yesterday that they were unlikely to win Sunni Arab approval for a new constitution by tomorrow's deadline.

The ruling coalition of Shias and Kurds said the disputed text could be pushed through parliament despite warnings from Sunnis that it was a charter for civil war.

The government ruled out major changes to a draft presented to parliament on Monday and said the restive Sunni minority had to accept that Iraq would become a federal state.

"The draft that was submitted is approximately the draft that will be implemented," said a spokesman for the prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.

Approval of the text was delayed until tomorrow to give negotiators a last chance to clinch the consensus widely deemed crucial to the constitution's success. "The only possible change now is that the Sunnis become convinced on federalism," said Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, a Shia member of the drafting committee.

There was little evidence that the once dominant minority was softening its hostility to autonomy for Kurds in the north and Shias in the south, a move it fears will starve Sunnis of oil wealth, cripple central government and break up the country.

It also opposed a provision about de-Ba'athification which outlined punishments and restrictions for officials of the former regime.

Before talks resumed yesterday a Sunni negotiator, Salah al-Mutlik, predicted rioting if parliament approved the text. A colleague, Soha Allawi, said the constitution contained the seeds of civil war.

The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld played down worries about civil war, saying: "Obviously it's something that one has to be attentive to ... but I haven't seen anything to suggest the risk is greater today than it was yesterday or the day before."

President George Bush said the Sunnis had to make a choice. "This talk about Sunnis rising up, I mean the Sunnis have got to make a choice. Do they want to live in a society that's free, or do they want to live in violence?"

Saudi Arabia, a Sunni regime uneasy at the ascendance of Iraq's Shias, expressed concern at the prospect of its neighbour dividing along sectarian lines.

As hours passed without sign of a breakthrough yesterday the constitutional committee chairman, Humam Hammoudi, said the only solution might be to push the draft through parliament and let it stand or fall in a referendum scheduled for October 15. Plans are under way for a government public relations blitz.

A two-thirds majority voting no in three of Iraq's 18 provinces will be enough to kill the constitution. Sunnis, believed to be a majority in four, are mobilising to make their voices heard.

"I registered yesterday," said Faiz Mohammad, 38, who runs a tea shop in the capital's Mansour district. "Clerics said it was our duty to vote this time."

He had not yet been directed which way to vote but Mr Mohammad, citing concerns over Kurdish and Shia control of oil revenue, was leaning towards rejection.

Dominant under successive regimes, Sunnis have been alienated since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. Their suspicion of the US, Kurds and the majority Shias drives the insurgency.

They largely boycotted the election in January but now want to engage in the political process, potentially sapping support for the resistance. Sunnis could even form an alliance with those Shias who oppose federalism.

Unless a significant number of Sunnis back the constitution the referendum is likely to turn into a sectarian and ethnic showdown. -- Guardian News

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